Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Paris FC meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Paris FC (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Toulouse. A 0.60 PPG lead over Paris FC (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Paris FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 50% | Paris FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.44 xG and Paris FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.986 / defence 0.981 | Paris FC attack 0.841 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.209. Data: 56 Toulouse games / 22 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 47% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 3.85. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 40% | Paris FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 47% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Toulouse 1.44 / Paris FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.986 / def 0.981 | Paris FC attack 0.841 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Paris FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Paris FC kick off?
Toulouse vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Toulouse vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Paris FC part of?
Toulouse vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 47% chance of winning, Paris FC a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Toulouse and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris FC?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Paris FC in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Paris FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.84x) against Toulouse's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.77
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.44
1.00
Paris FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.00 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 15D 22L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Toulouse against 1.62 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (9W 9D 10L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 11W 7D 10L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.29 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 0-3 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
0
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Paris FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Paris FC?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 57%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 46% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Paris FC in 36%; Paris FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Toulouse's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 46% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Paris FC tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 23, as Toulouse and Paris FC drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.44 xG and Paris FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Paris FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 47% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Paris FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.29 PPG, Paris FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.