Reims 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Reims (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Reims face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Reims's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Reims are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Reims winning.
The historical record gives Reims a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nantes — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Nantes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 50% | Nantes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.53 xG and Nantes 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.940 / defence 1.015 | Nantes attack 0.839 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.049. Data: 56 Reims games / 56 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Nantes 5.00. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Nantes 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Reims 1.53 / Nantes 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.940 / def 1.015 | Nantes attack 0.839 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Reims (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantes xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nantes kick off?
Reims vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nantes?
Reims 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Reims vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Nantes part of?
Reims vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 50% chance of winning, Nantes a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reims and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 4W | Draws 0 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Reims and Nantes in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Nantes (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.94) and Nantes's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.84x) against Reims's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.35
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Reims xG
Total xG
2.42
0.89
Nantes xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Reims and 0.89 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 17D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.96 PPG from 56 outings (12W 18D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.70 points per game from 27 outings (4W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nantes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 18D 26L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nantes away?
Reims's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantes away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Reims or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Nantes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Reims
1
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 5, Nantes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Reims 1-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nantes?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Nantes 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 52% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Nantes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 52% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 52% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nantes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Nantes in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 19, as Reims and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.53 xG and Nantes 0.89 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Nantes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.