Reims 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Reims (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Reims face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Reims (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reims's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Reims's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Reims have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Nantes managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Reims 1–0 Nantes — a Reims win.
The head-to-head data gives Reims an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Nantes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 50% | Nantes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.53 xG and Nantes 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.940 / defence 1.015 | Nantes attack 0.839 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.049. Data: built from Reims's last 56 games and Nantes's last 56.
Result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.00 | Draw 3.35 | Nantes 4.99. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 50% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Reims 1.53 / Nantes 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.940 / def 1.015 | Nantes attack 0.839 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Reims (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantes xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Reims vs Nantes kick off?
Reims vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nantes?
Reims 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Reims vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Nantes part of?
Reims vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 50% chance of winning, Nantes a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reims and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Reims vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.94) and Nantes's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.84x) against Reims's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 56 games and Nantes's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.35
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Reims xG
Total xG
2.42
0.89
Nantes xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Reims and 0.89 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 17D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.96 PPG from 56 outings (12W 18D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Reims carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Reims vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Nantes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 18D 26L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nantes away?
Reims's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantes away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Reims or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Nantes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Reims and Nantes, the earliest from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won Nantes 0-3 Reims on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Reims
2
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 5, Nantes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Nantes 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nantes?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Nantes 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 52% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Nantes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 52% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 52% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Reims's recent matches and 56% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 19, as Reims and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.53 xG and Nantes 0.89 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Nantes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 19
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →