Toulouse 0-2 Lens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Toulouse take on Lens.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Lens in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 16:05 UK time.
Current Form
Toulouse's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Toulouse at home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lens have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lens away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lens arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Lens, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Toulouse 1–2 Lens — a Lens win.
Lens have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lens — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Lens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Lens 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 0.97 xG and Lens 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.838 / defence 0.995 | Lens attack 0.883 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.057. Data: built from Toulouse's last 56 games and Lens's last 56.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 38% | Lens 30%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.11 | Draw 2.65 | Lens 3.31. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Lens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Lens 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 38% | Lens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Toulouse 0.97 / Lens 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.838 / def 0.995 | Lens attack 0.883 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lens xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Lens FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Lens kick off?
Toulouse vs Lens kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lens?
Toulouse 0 - 2 Lens.
Where is Toulouse vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lens part of?
Toulouse vs Lens is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 32% chance of winning, Lens a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Toulouse and Lens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Toulouse vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lens's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lens's attack (0.88x) against Toulouse's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 56 games and Lens's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
38%
2.65
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Toulouse xG
Total xG
1.90
0.93
Lens xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Lens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.93 for Lens, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 17D 23L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Lens's form line: 32W 14D 10L from 56 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Lens are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 27 home games (7W 11D 9L).
On the road, Lens have gone 10W 10D 7L from their last 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lens's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.59 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Lens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Lens
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Lens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Lens
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Lens Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Lens in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Lens have gone 32W 14D 10L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lens away?
Lens's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.19 PPG; Lens away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Toulouse and Lens, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lens have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lens won Lens 3-0 Toulouse on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Lens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 1, Lens have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Lens 3-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 63%, Lens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 44% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Lens in 41%; Toulouse have failed to score in 26% of games; Lens in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Lens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Lens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Toulouse's games and 48% of Lens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Lens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 44% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Toulouse's recent matches and 63% of Lens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lens cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Toulouse 0-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 0.97 xG and Lens 0.93 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lens outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Lens attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 32% | Draw 38% | Lens 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Lens 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lens's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Lens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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