Montpellier 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Montpellier take on Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lille travel to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 to take on Montpellier in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Montpellier — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Montpellier's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lille have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lille's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Montpellier's games and 60% of Lille's (from Montpellier's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Lille have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Montpellier.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Montpellier 0–1 Lille — a Lille win.
Lille have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 52% versus Lille 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 57% | Lille 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Montpellier surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Lille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 0.98 xG and Lille 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.852 / defence 0.995 | Lille attack 0.955 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.060. Data: built from Montpellier's last 56 games and Lille's last 56.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 32% | Draw 35% | Lille 33%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 3.15 | Draw 2.84 | Lille 3.02. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Montpellier 60% (last 10 home games) | Lille 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 32% | Draw 35% | Lille 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Montpellier 0.98 / Lille 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.852 / def 0.995 | Lille attack 0.955 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lille xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Montpellier vs Lille FAQs
What time does Montpellier vs Lille kick off?
Montpellier vs Lille kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Lille?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Montpellier vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Lille part of?
Montpellier vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 32% chance of winning, Lille a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Montpellier and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Montpellier vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Montpellier's attack rating (0.85) and Lille's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Montpellier's last 56 games and Lille's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.84
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Montpellier xG
Total xG
1.99
1.01
Lille xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Montpellier vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.01 for Lille, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Montpellier come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 12D 25L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.75 PPG from 56 outings (27W 17D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Montpellier — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Montpellier's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 11D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.59 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Lille
Blended
Montpellier (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Montpellier
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Montpellier vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Montpellier and Lille in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Lille have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.18 PPG; Lille away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lille in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Montpellier
2
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Montpellier vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Lille?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Montpellier have won 0, Lille have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Lille 1-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 64%, Lille 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Montpellier) and 36% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 32%; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Montpellier vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Montpellier and Lille matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Montpellier's games and 54% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Montpellier and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Montpellier's recent games and 36% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Montpellier's recent matches and 68% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 19, as Montpellier and Lille drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 0.98 xG and Lille 1.01 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Lille attack 0.95 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 32% | Draw 35% | Lille 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 57%, Lille 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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