Lorient 3-3 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lorient at 43%, yet in-form Le Havre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lorient vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat to face Lorient in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Lorient (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lorient's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lorient are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Le Havre are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Lorient, 1 for Le Havre and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Lorient 0–3 Le Havre — a Le Havre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 62% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 62% | Le Havre 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lorient surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.45 xG and Le Havre 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.029 / defence 1.432 | Le Havre attack 0.725 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.049. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Lorient's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Data: built from Lorient's last 56 games and Le Havre's last 18.
Result probabilities: Lorient 43% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 26%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.31 | Draw 3.29 | Le Havre 3.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Havre (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lorient 80% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 43% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lorient 1.45 / Le Havre 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.029 / def 1.432 | Le Havre attack 0.725 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Lorient (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Le Havre xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lorient vs Le Havre kick off?
Lorient vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Le Havre?
Lorient 3 - 3 Le Havre.
Where is Lorient vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Le Havre part of?
Lorient vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 43% chance of winning, Le Havre a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lorient and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lorient vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lorient's attack rating (1.03) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.72x) against Lorient's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Lorient's last 56 games and Le Havre's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.29
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Le Havre xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lorient and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lorient and 1.09 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lorient come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 16D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.73 PPG from 56 outings (25W 22D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lorient — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lorient's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 13D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Lorient are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.16 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lorient (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lorient
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lorient and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 22D 9L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.43 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lorient or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Le Havre in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Lorient and Le Havre, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won Le Havre 3-0 Lorient on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Lorient
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Le Havre?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Lorient have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Le Havre 0-2 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 64%, Le Havre 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Lorient) and 32% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 43%; Lorient have failed to score in 29% of games; Le Havre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lorient and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Lorient's recent matches and 43% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lorient and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Lorient's recent games and 32% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lorient's recent matches and 54% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient and Le Havre share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 19, as Lorient and Le Havre drew 3-3 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.45 xG and Le Havre 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.03 / defence 1.43 against Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 43% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 26%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 62%, Le Havre 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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