Reims 2-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Toulouse at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Toulouse — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Reims have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Reims have won 1, Toulouse 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Toulouse trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Toulouse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.12 xG and Toulouse 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.821 / defence 0.911 | Toulouse attack 0.808 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.081. Data: 57 Reims games / 57 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Toulouse 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Toulouse 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Reims 1.12 / Toulouse 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.821 / def 0.911 | Toulouse attack 0.808 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Reims (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Toulouse xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Toulouse kick off?
Reims vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Reims 2 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Reims vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Toulouse part of?
Reims vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 40% chance of winning, Toulouse a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Reims and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Reims and Toulouse in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.82x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
40%
2.48
37%
2.73
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Reims xG
Total xG
1.92
0.80
Toulouse xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Reims and 0.80 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Reims have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 18D 18L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 16W 17D 24L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.42 PPG, Toulouse on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 8W 6D 14L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.18 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 18D 18L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Toulouse away?
Reims's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.64 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Reims or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Toulouse in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 46%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 57% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 57% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Toulouse tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Reims 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Reims 2-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.12 xG and Toulouse 0.80 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Toulouse attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 40% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Toulouse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Toulouse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.42 PPG, Toulouse 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.