Monaco 1-3 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Louis-II to face Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade Louis-II this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis-II. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Monaco. A 0.60 PPG lead over Reims (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monaco lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Monaco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 60% versus Reims 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 64% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.68 xG and Reims 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.111 / defence 0.879 | Reims attack 1.046 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.025. Data: 55 Monaco games / 55 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 5.26. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 30% | Reims 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Monaco 1.68 / Reims 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.111 / def 0.879 | Reims attack 1.046 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Monaco (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reims xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Reims kick off?
Monaco vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Reims?
Monaco 1 - 3 Reims.
Where is Monaco vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Reims part of?
Monaco vs Reims is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 53% chance of winning, Reims a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monaco and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 1 | Reims 2W.
What form are Monaco and Reims in?
Monaco (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Reims (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.11) and Reims's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.05x) against Monaco's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.52
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.62
0.94
Reims xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
28.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Monaco and 0.94 for Reims, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monaco's recent record stands at 29W 11D 15L from 55 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 18L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Monaco against 1.40 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 3D 9L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 11D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Reims in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 29W 11D 15L in their last 55 games (1.78 PPG), while Reims have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Reims away?
Monaco's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.78 PPG; Reims away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Monaco or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Reims in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 0-3 on 18 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Monaco
2
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Monaco 3-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 56%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Monaco) and 44% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Monaco's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Monaco's recent games and 44% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Reims tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reims in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monaco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Monaco 1-3 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.68 xG and Reims 0.94 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Reims outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Reims attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Reims 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.78 PPG, Reims 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.