Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris Saint Germain face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Stade Brestois 29 at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Paris Saint Germain at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stade Brestois 29's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Paris Saint Germain: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Stade Brestois 29, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Paris Saint Germain 3–2 Stade Brestois 29 — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The head-to-head data gives Paris Saint Germain an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 57% versus Stade Brestois 29 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 68% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.72 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.531 / defence 0.996 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.085 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.069. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.531 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 56 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 56.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 48% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 23%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.07 | Draw 3.49 | Stade Brestois 29 4.32. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 60% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 48% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.72 / Stade Brestois 29 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.531 / def 0.996 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.085 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Stade Brestois 29 xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 48% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.53x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 56 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.49
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.88
1.16
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.16 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 40W 8D 8L from 56 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 20L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 20W 3D 5L from their last 28 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 40W 8D 8L in their last 56 games (2.29 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.25 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won Stade Brestois 29 2-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 9, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 61%, Stade Brestois 29 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Paris Saint Germain) and 46% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 54% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 46% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 64% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 19, as Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.72 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.53 / defence 1.00 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 48% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 23%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 68%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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