Rennes 2-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rennes and Montpellier meet at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rennes's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rennes's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rennes. A 0.60 PPG lead over Montpellier (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Rennes, 1 for Montpellier and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Rennes 0–0 Montpellier — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Montpellier 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Montpellier 56%). Note also that Montpellier surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Rennes recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.64 xG and Montpellier 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.177 / defence 1.030 | Montpellier attack 0.892 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.083. Data: built from Rennes's last 57 games and Montpellier's last 57.
Result probabilities: Rennes 50% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 20%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.00 | Draw 3.38 | Montpellier 4.90. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Montpellier's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 80% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 50% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Rennes 1.64 / Montpellier 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.177 / def 1.030 | Montpellier attack 0.892 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Rennes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Montpellier xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Montpellier kick off?
Rennes vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Montpellier?
Rennes 2 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Rennes vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Montpellier part of?
Rennes vs Montpellier is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 50% chance of winning, Montpellier a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rennes and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rennes's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.89x) against Rennes's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 57 games and Montpellier's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.38
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Montpellier xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rennes and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Rennes and 0.99 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 12D 18L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Montpellier's form line: 19W 13D 25L from 57 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Rennes against 1.23 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 28 home games (19W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 11W 3D 14L from their last 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.47 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 19W 13D 25L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Montpellier away?
Rennes's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.14 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rennes or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Montpellier in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Rennes and Montpellier, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Rennes have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won Montpellier 0-4 Rennes on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Rennes
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Montpellier?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 6, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rennes and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Montpellier 0-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Montpellier?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 54%, Montpellier 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Rennes and 54% for Montpellier. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Montpellier in 32%; Montpellier in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rennes's recent matches and 39% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rennes's matches and 54% of Montpellier's.
Do Rennes and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Rennes's recent matches and 82% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Montpellier 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Montpellier 2-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.64 xG and Montpellier 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Montpellier attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 50% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 20%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Montpellier 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.63 PPG, Montpellier 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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