Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Clermont Foot meet at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lille's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lille's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lille are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Lille. A 0.70 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Lille edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Lille 0–0 Clermont Foot — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 56% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 44% | Clermont Foot 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lille surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Clermont Foot have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Clermont Foot surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lille recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.60 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.113 / defence 0.721 | Clermont Foot attack 1.013 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.081. Lille have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling Clermont Foot's projected output down. Data: built from Lille's last 57 games and Clermont Foot's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lille 54% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 16%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 6.27. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lille 40% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 54% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Lille 1.60 / Clermont Foot 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.113 / def 0.721 | Clermont Foot attack 1.013 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Lille (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Lille vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lille vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Lille 4 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lille vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lille vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 54% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lille and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Lille vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.11) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.01x) against Lille's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 57 games and Clermont Foot's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.33
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lille xG
Total xG
2.39
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
30.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lille and 0.79 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 18D 12L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.30 PPG from 57 outings (20W 14D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lille's home form reads 19W 6D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Lille vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 20W 14D 23L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lille's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.25 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lille or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2024: Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 61%, Clermont Foot 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 54% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Clermont Foot matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lille's games and 64% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 54% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Lille's recent matches and 75% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Clermont Foot 4-0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.60 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.11 / defence 0.72 against Clermont Foot attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 54% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 16%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 44%, Clermont Foot 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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