Metz 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Metz face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien plays host to Metz versus Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Metz's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Metz's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Auxerre have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Metz, 0.70 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Metz, 1 for Auxerre and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Metz 1–3 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 56% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 56% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.07 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.743 / defence 1.262 | Auxerre attack 0.637 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.199. Metz's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Metz's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 21 games and Auxerre's last 55.
Result probabilities: Metz 38% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.66 | Draw 3.28 | Auxerre 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 40% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 38% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Metz 1.07 / Auxerre 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.743 / def 1.262 | Auxerre attack 0.637 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Metz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Auxerre xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Metz vs Auxerre kick off?
Metz vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Auxerre?
Metz 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Metz vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Auxerre part of?
Metz vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Metz and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Metz vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.74) and Auxerre's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.64x) against Metz's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 21 games and Auxerre's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.28
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Metz xG
Total xG
2.04
0.96
Auxerre xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Metz and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Metz and 0.96 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 14D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.02 PPG from 55 outings (14W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Metz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Metz's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.13 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Metz vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 22W 14D 19L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Auxerre away?
Metz's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.74 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Metz and Auxerre, the earliest from December 2025. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Auxerre?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Metz 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 48%, Auxerre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Metz) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 26% of games; Auxerre in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Auxerre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Metz's recent matches and 52% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Metz's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Metz's recent matches and 82% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Metz 1-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.07 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.74 / defence 1.26 against Auxerre attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 38% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 32%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Auxerre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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