Metz 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Metz face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Lille travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lille — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Lille have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Metz's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–6 with Lille winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lille have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lille in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 57% versus Lille 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 57% | Lille 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.39 xG and Lille 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.852 / defence 1.384 | Lille attack 1.024 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.268. Data: 20 Metz games / 54 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 30% | Draw 23% | Lille 47%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Lille 2.13. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Metz 50% | Lille 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 30% | Draw 23% | Lille 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Metz 1.39 / Lille 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.852 / def 1.384 | Lille attack 1.024 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Lille (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lille xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Lille kick off?
Metz vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Lille?
Metz 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Metz vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Lille part of?
Metz vs Lille is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 30% chance of winning, Lille a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Metz and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 3W.
What form are Metz and Lille in?
Metz (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
30%
3.35
23%
4.35
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Metz xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Lille xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Metz and 1.80 for Lille, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Metz have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 13D 19L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 27W 11D 16L from 54 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.46 PPG, Lille on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
On the road, Lille have gone 9W 6D 11L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Lille in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Lille have gone 27W 11D 16L in their last 54 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Lille away?
Metz's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.77 PPG; Lille away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lille won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
3
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Lille have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Metz 0-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 50%, Lille 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Metz) and 46% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lille in 31%; Lille in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Metz's recent matches and 38% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Metz's recent games and 46% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Lille tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lille in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 21, as Metz and Lille drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.39 xG and Lille 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Lille attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 30% | Draw 23% | Lille 47%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 57%, Lille 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.46 PPG, Lille 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.