Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Auxerre, 1.00 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Auxerre 2W, Paris FC 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Paris FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Paris FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.37 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.856 / defence 1.018 | Paris FC attack 0.924 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Auxerre games / 20 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Paris FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.37 / Paris FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.856 / def 1.018 | Paris FC attack 0.924 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Paris FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 42% chance of winning, Paris FC a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.92x) against Auxerre's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.75
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Paris FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.15 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 16L across 54 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.37 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 44%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 48% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Auxerre have failed to score in 30% of games; Paris FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 48% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.37 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Paris FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Paris FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.