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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Toulouse's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 2, Toulouse 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Le Havre trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Toulouse trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Toulouse 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.93 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.832 / defence 0.853 | Toulouse attack 0.998 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.200. Toulouse's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Le Havre games / 55 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Toulouse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 60% | Toulouse 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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