Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 2, Toulouse 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Toulouse 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.93 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.832 / defence 0.853 | Toulouse attack 0.998 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.200. Toulouse's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Le Havre games / 55 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Toulouse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 60% | Toulouse 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 0.93 / Toulouse 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.832 / def 0.853 | Toulouse attack 0.998 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Toulouse xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 32% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Record (7 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.83) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.20
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.95
1.02
Toulouse xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.02 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 15W 12D 28L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.04 PPG, Toulouse on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 11L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.04 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Toulouse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Toulouse 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Le Havre) and 48% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 33%; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Le Havre's recent matches and 41% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Toulouse 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.93 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Toulouse attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Toulouse 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.04 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.