Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lille are significantly better at Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.30 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 51% versus Stade Brestois 29 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 47% | Stade Brestois 29 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.79 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.996 / defence 1.151 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.084 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.174. Data: 55 Lille games / 55 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Stade Brestois 29 32%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Stade Brestois 29 3.12. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Stade Brestois 29 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Lille 1.79 / Stade Brestois 29 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.996 / def 1.151 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.084 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Stade Brestois 29 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 45% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (9 meetings): Lille 3W | Draws 4 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.37
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lille xG
Total xG
3.26
1.47
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lille and 1.47 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 27W 12D 16L from 55 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 23L across 55 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.69 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 7W 4D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stade Brestois 29's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.45 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 games (1.69 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 22W 10D 23L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.07 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Lille or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 67%, Stade Brestois 29 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Lille and 70% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lille's games and 59% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lille's matches and 70% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.79 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.47 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Stade Brestois 29 32%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Stade Brestois 29 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.69 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.