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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Rennes welcome Paris Saint Germain to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rennes — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris Saint Germain stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris Saint Germain — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Paris Saint Germain in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Rennes, 5 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–5 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Paris Saint Germain 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.078 / defence 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.176. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Rennes games / 55 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Rennes 3W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W • Goals trend: 2.89 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Rennes 9 – 17 Paris Saint Germain • H2H markets: BTTS 44% | Over 2.5 44% | Win rates: Rennes 33% / Draw 11% / Paris Saint Germain 56% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Paris Saint Germain favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 44% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.89 goals/game (44% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.92 (56% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 44%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L • Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • Rennes home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 2 • Paris Saint Germain away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris Saint Germain lead by 1.10 PPG (2.70 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Rennes): Poisson projects 1.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Paris Saint Germain): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.92 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Rennes 7/10, Paris Saint Germain 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 59% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Paris Saint Germain — Paris Saint Germain at 44% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Rennes 1.33 / Paris Saint Germain 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.078 / def 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Rennes 3 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 32% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rennes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
• Record (9 meetings): Rennes 3W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W • Goals trend: 2.89 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Rennes 9 – 17 Paris Saint Germain • H2H markets: BTTS 44% | Over 2.5 44% | Win rates: Rennes 33% / Draw 11% / Paris Saint Germain 56% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Paris Saint Germain favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 44% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.89 goals/game (44% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.92 (56% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 44%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain in?
• Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L • Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • Rennes home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 2 • Paris Saint Germain away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris Saint Germain lead by 1.10 PPG (2.70 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Rennes): Poisson projects 1.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Paris Saint Germain): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.92 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Rennes 7/10, Paris Saint Germain 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 59% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Paris Saint Germain — Paris Saint Germain at 44% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture