Monaco 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Louis-II to face Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco at Stade Louis-II this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monaco, 0 for Le Havre and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 65% | Le Havre 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.67 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.044 / defence 1.052 | Le Havre attack 0.885 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.082. Data: 57 Monaco games / 19 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 51% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 21%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 4.76. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 40% | Le Havre 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 51% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Monaco 1.67 / Le Havre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.044 / def 1.052 | Le Havre attack 0.885 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Monaco (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Le Havre xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Le Havre kick off?
Monaco vs Le Havre kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Le Havre?
Monaco 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Monaco vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Le Havre part of?
Monaco vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 51% chance of winning, Le Havre a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Monaco and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Monaco and Le Havre in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Monaco's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.89x) against Monaco's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.48
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.67
1.01
Le Havre xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
4%
25.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Monaco and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Monaco and 1.01 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 29W 12D 16L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 9L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Monaco against 1.72 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 3D 10L from 28 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 10W 14D 4L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.19 scored and 0.74 conceded. Monaco's scoring rate against Le Havre's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 29W 12D 16L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 23D 9L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Le Havre away?
Monaco's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.71 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Monaco or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Le Havre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Monaco
4
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 2, Le Havre have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Le Havre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 57%, Le Havre 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Monaco) and 36% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 43%; Le Havre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Monaco's recent matches and 46% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Monaco's recent games and 36% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Le Havre tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 20, as Monaco and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.67 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 51% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 21%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 65%, Le Havre 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.74 PPG, Le Havre 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.