Le Havre 3-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 14 January 2024 at 16:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lyon away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.00 PPG versus Lyon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Lyon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Le Havre 0–0 Lyon — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lyon trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Lyon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.14 xG and Lyon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.851 / defence 1.045 | Lyon attack 0.946 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.030. Data: built from Le Havre's last 17 games and Lyon's last 55.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.76 | Draw 2.95 | Lyon 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 30% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Le Havre 1.14 / Lyon 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.851 / def 1.045 | Lyon attack 0.946 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lyon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Lyon a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.85) and Lyon's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 17 games and Lyon's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Lyon xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.02 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 22D 9L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.42 PPG from 55 outings (22W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.71 PPG, Lyon on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 14W 9D 4L across their last 27 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.47 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 60%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 24W 22D 9L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Lyon have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Le Havre's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.89 PPG; Lyon away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Lyon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won Le Havre 0-4 Lyon.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 33%, Lyon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 59% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Lyon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Le Havre's recent matches and 59% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 59% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Le Havre's recent matches and 63% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Lyon 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.14 xG and Lyon 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Lyon attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.71 PPG, Lyon 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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