Le Havre 3-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Océane — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.00 PPG versus Lyon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Lyon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lyon trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Lyon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.14 xG and Lyon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.851 / defence 1.045 | Lyon attack 0.946 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.030. Data: 17 Le Havre games / 55 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Lyon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Lyon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Le Havre 1.14 / Lyon 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.851 / def 1.045 | Lyon attack 0.946 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lyon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Lyon a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.85) and Lyon's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Lyon xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.02 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 22D 9L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.42 PPG from 55 outings (22W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.71 PPG, Lyon on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 14W 9D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.47 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 60%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 24W 22D 9L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Lyon have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Le Havre's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.89 PPG; Lyon away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Lyon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Lyon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 33%, Lyon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 59% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Lyon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Le Havre's recent matches and 59% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 59% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lyon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Lyon in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Lyon 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.14 xG and Lyon 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Lyon attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Lyon 30%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.71 PPG, Lyon 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.