Lorient 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lorient at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lorient welcome Auxerre to Stade du Moustoir in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lorient have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Lorient have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lorient have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lorient have won 1, Auxerre 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Lorient 0–1 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 51% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 53% | Auxerre 53%). Note also that Auxerre surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Lorient recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.036 / defence 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.815 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.180. Data: built from Lorient's last 23 games and Auxerre's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.08 | Draw 3.83 | Auxerre 3.88. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lorient 80% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lorient 1.49 / Auxerre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.036 / def 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.815 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Lorient (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lorient vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Lorient vs Auxerre kick off?
Lorient vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stade du Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Lorient 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lorient vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Auxerre part of?
Lorient vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 48% chance of winning, Auxerre a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lorient and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lorient vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lorient's attack at 1.04x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lorient's last 23 games and Auxerre's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Auxerre xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lorient vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lorient and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lorient and 1.01 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lorient's recent record stands at 30W 13D 14L from 57 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 28L across 57 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lorient by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 21W 5D 2L from their last 28 home games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Lorient are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 5W 6D 17L across their last 28 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Lorient (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lorient
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Lorient vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Lorient and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 30W 13D 14L in their last 57 games (1.81 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Auxerre away?
Lorient's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 2.43 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Lorient or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lorient's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lorient
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lorient vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Auxerre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lorient have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lorient and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Lorient 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 57%, Auxerre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lorient) and 54% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lorient vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lorient and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lorient's games and 54% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lorient and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lorient's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Lorient and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lorient's recent matches and 82% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 24, as Lorient and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 53%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 24
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →