Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Strasbourg at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Strasbourg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.30 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Strasbourg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Auxerre.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Strasbourg winning.
It is worth noting that Strasbourg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Strasbourg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Strasbourg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.05 xG and Strasbourg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.675 / defence 1.094 | Strasbourg attack 1.196 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.199. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Auxerre games / 58 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Strasbourg 2.04. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 30% | Strasbourg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.05 / Strasbourg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.675 / def 1.094 | Strasbourg attack 1.196 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Strasbourg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Auxerre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Strasbourg part of?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 25% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.68) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
25%
3.94
25%
3.96
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.62
1.57
Strasbourg xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.57 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 15D 28L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 18L across 58 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 9W 7D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Strasbourg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.66 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Strasbourg away?
Auxerre's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.31 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2025, when Strasbourg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Strasbourg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 41%, Strasbourg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 55% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Auxerre's recent matches and 62% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 55% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Strasbourg finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.05 xG and Strasbourg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Strasbourg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.