🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rennes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Rennes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Roazhon Park, Rennes have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Toulouse have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Toulouse's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Rennes, 1.50 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Toulouse hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Toulouse have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Toulouse 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 61% | Toulouse 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.47 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.162 / defence 0.985 | Toulouse attack 1.003 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.219. Data: 57 Rennes games / 57 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 31%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 80% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights