Lille 0-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to face Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 11 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lille have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stade Pierre-Mauroy — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Lille's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lille lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 63% and Saint Etienne 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 52% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.58 xG and Saint Etienne 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.088 / defence 1.218 | Saint Etienne attack 0.761 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.147. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Lille games / 27 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 49% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 26%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 3.85. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 60% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 49% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Lille 1.58 / Saint Etienne 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.088 / def 1.218 | Saint Etienne attack 0.761 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Lille (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Saint Etienne xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Lille vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Lille 0 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Lille vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Saint Etienne part of?
Lille vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 49% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lille and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Lille and Saint Etienne in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.76x) against Lille's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.98
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lille xG
Total xG
2.65
1.06
Saint Etienne xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lille and 1.06 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 11W 9D 7L from 27 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 14L across 27 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 6W 5D 2L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 3W 2D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.04 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Saint Etienne away?
Lille's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.77 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lille
2
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Lille have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 62%, Saint Etienne 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 46% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lille's games and 54% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 46% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 28, as Lille and Saint Etienne drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.58 xG and Saint Etienne 1.06 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.09 / defence 1.22 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 49% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 26%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 52%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.