Strasbourg 1-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Meinau plays host to Strasbourg versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg at Stade de la Meinau this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Strasbourg, 1.50 for Monaco — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Strasbourg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 56% versus Monaco 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 48% | Monaco 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.40 xG and Monaco 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.185 / defence 1.041 | Monaco attack 0.810 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.112. Data: 27 Strasbourg games / 27 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 48% | Draw 27% | Monaco 25%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 4.00. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 50% | Monaco 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 48% | Draw 27% | Monaco 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Strasbourg 1.40 / Monaco 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.185 / def 1.041 | Monaco attack 0.810 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Monaco xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Monaco kick off?
Strasbourg vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Strasbourg 1 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Strasbourg vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Monaco part of?
Strasbourg vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 48% chance of winning, Monaco a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Strasbourg and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Strasbourg 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 0W.
What form are Strasbourg and Monaco in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Strasbourg's attack at 1.19x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.81x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.68
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Monaco xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.94 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 12W 8D 7L from 27 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 8L across 27 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.52 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 4W 4D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Strasbourg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Monaco in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 12W 8D 7L in their last 27 games (1.63 PPG), while Monaco have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Monaco away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.85 PPG; Monaco away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monaco in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Strasbourg
2
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 2, Monaco have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 54%, Monaco 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Strasbourg) and 38% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Monaco in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 46% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Strasbourg vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Strasbourg's recent games and 38% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Monaco tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Monaco in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Monaco 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Monaco 1-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.40 xG and Monaco 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monaco landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Monaco attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 48% | Draw 27% | Monaco 25%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 48%, Monaco 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monaco's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.63 PPG, Monaco 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.