Saint Etienne 1-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Estac Troyes at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 1, Estac Troyes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Estac Troyes trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 61% versus Estac Troyes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 54% | Estac Troyes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.62 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.979 / defence 1.440 | Estac Troyes attack 0.794 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.142. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Saint Etienne games / 28 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 31%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 3.23. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 1.62 / Estac Troyes 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.979 / def 1.440 | Estac Troyes attack 0.794 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.98x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.11
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.31 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 8D 14L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.93 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 1D 9L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.93 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Estac Troyes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.00 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 71%, Estac Troyes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Saint Etienne's matches and 50% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.62 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.98 / defence 1.44 against Estac Troyes attack 0.79 / defence 1.55, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 31%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 54%, Estac Troyes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.93 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.