Clermont Foot 0-2 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Lorient meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lorient's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Lorient and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lorient — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 44% versus Lorient 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Lorient 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.23 xG and Lorient 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.773 / defence 1.249 | Lorient attack 0.714 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.112. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Clermont Foot games / 27 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 29% | Lorient 30%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Lorient 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Lorient 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 29% | Lorient 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 1.23 / Lorient 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.773 / def 1.249 | Lorient attack 0.714 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lorient xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lorient kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Clermont Foot 0 - 2 Lorient.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lorient part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 41% chance of winning, Lorient a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Lorient 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lorient in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Lorient (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.71x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.48
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.22
0.99
Lorient xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.99 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 7D 13L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient's form line: 5W 9D 13L from 27 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.89 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 1W 4D 8L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 0.81 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lorient in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 7W 7D 13L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Lorient have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lorient away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.08 PPG; Lorient away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lorient won 5-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
4
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lorient have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Lorient 3-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Lorient 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Clermont Foot) and 54% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Lorient in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Clermont Foot's games and 54% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 54% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Lorient tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lorient in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Clermont Foot 0-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.23 xG and Lorient 0.99 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lorient outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Lorient attack 0.71 / defence 1.45, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 29% | Lorient 30%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lorient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Lorient 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.04 PPG, Lorient 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.