Nantes 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nantes at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau plays host to Nantes versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lille away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Nantes, 1.80 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nantes 0W, Lille 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Lille 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 36% | Lille 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.39 xG and Lille 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.241 / defence 0.978 | Lille attack 0.856 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.140. Data: 28 Nantes games / 28 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 27% | Lille 26%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Lille 3.85. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 50% | Lille 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 27% | Lille 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantes 1.39 / Lille 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.241 / def 0.978 | Lille attack 0.856 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Nantes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Lille xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lille kick off?
Nantes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lille?
Nantes 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Nantes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lille part of?
Nantes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 47% chance of winning, Lille a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 0W.
What form are Nantes and Lille in?
Nantes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nantes's attack rating (1.24) and Lille's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.86x) against Nantes's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.67
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.34
0.95
Lille xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Nantes and 0.95 for Lille, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 12W 6D 10L from 28 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 7L across 28 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Nantes against 1.54 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 9W 2D 3L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lille's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lille in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 12W 6D 10L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while Lille have gone 11W 10D 7L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lille away?
Nantes's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 2.07 PPG; Lille away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
3
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lille 1-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 43%, Lille 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nantes) and 50% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nantes's recent matches and 64% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nantes's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lille tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lille in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.39 xG and Lille 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Lille attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 47% | Draw 27% | Lille 26%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 36%, Lille 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.50 PPG, Lille 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.