Montpellier 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Stade de la Mosson to face Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Montpellier (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Nice have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nice are 1.00 PPG clear of Montpellier in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Montpellier, 0 for Nice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Montpellier winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 52% versus Nice 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 48% | Nice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 0.91 xG and Nice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.033 / defence 1.346 | Nice attack 0.921 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.138. Data: 27 Montpellier games / 27 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 24% | Draw 27% | Nice 49%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Nice 2.04. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 40% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 24% | Draw 27% | Nice 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Montpellier 0.91 / Nice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.033 / def 1.346 | Nice attack 0.921 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Nice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Nice xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Nice kick off?
Montpellier vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Nice?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Montpellier vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Nice part of?
Montpellier vs Nice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 24% chance of winning, Nice a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Montpellier and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Nice?
Record (1 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 0 | Nice 0W.
What form are Montpellier and Nice in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Nice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.03x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.92x) against Montpellier's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
24%
4.11
27%
3.69
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.32
1.41
Nice xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.41 for Nice, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Montpellier come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 4D 12L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (15W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Montpellier — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Montpellier's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.00 points per game from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.41 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Nice in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 11W 4D 12L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Nice have gone 15W 5D 7L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.77 PPG; Nice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Nice in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-1 on 11 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
3
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Nice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Nice 2-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Montpellier) and 23% (Nice) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Montpellier) and 46% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nice in 54%; Nice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Montpellier's recent matches and 23% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Montpellier's recent games and 46% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Nice tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 0.91 xG and Nice 1.41 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.03 / defence 1.35 against Nice attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 24% | Draw 27% | Nice 49%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 48%, Nice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.