Saint Etienne 1-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Metz travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.00 PPG versus Metz's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Metz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Metz trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 65% versus Metz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Metz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.17 xG and Metz 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.976 / defence 1.510 | Metz attack 0.623 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.183. Data: 26 Saint Etienne games / 26 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 37% | Draw 28% | Metz 34%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Metz 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 70% | Metz 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 37% | Draw 28% | Metz 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Saint Etienne 1.17 / Metz 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.976 / def 1.510 | Metz attack 0.623 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Metz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Metz kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Metz.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Metz part of?
Saint Etienne vs Metz is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 37% chance of winning, Metz a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Saint Etienne and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Metz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.98x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.51
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.29
1.11
Metz xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.11 for Metz, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 5W 7D 14L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 4W 10D 12L from 26 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.85 PPG, Metz on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
On the road, Metz have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 0.96 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 5W 7D 14L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Metz have gone 4W 10D 12L in their last 26 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.85 PPG; Metz away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Metz specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 77%, Metz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Saint Etienne) and 46% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz in 38%; Metz in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Saint Etienne's games and 38% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Saint Etienne's matches and 46% of Metz's.
Do Saint Etienne and Metz tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Metz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Metz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Metz 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.17 xG and Metz 1.11 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.98 / defence 1.51 against Metz attack 0.62 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 37% | Draw 28% | Metz 34%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Metz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Metz's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.85 PPG, Metz 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.