Lille 1-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lille face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Nantes meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Lille have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nantes's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Lille's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nantes's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lille's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) — Lille have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nantes in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Lille, who have won 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against Nantes — Nantes have 1 win, with 3 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Lille 2–0 Nantes — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data gives Lille an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 51% versus Nantes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 46% | Nantes 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.61 xG and Nantes 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.952 / defence 1.113 | Nantes attack 0.929 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.180. Data: built from Lille's last 57 games and Nantes's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 25% | Nantes 29%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.15 | Draw 4.07 | Nantes 3.46. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 60% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 25% | Nantes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lille 1.61 / Nantes 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.952 / def 1.113 | Nantes attack 0.929 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Lille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Nantes xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Lille vs Nantes kick off?
Lille vs Nantes kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Nantes?
Lille 1 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Lille vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nantes part of?
Lille vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 46% chance of winning, Nantes a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.93x) against Lille's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 57 games and Nantes's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.07
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lille xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Nantes xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lille and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lille and 1.22 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille come into this having played 57 games, going 28W 13D 16L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.93 PPG from 57 outings (12W 17D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lille's home form reads 17W 6D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Lille vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Nantes in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 28W 13D 16L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 17D 28L in their last 57 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Nantes away?
Lille's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.04 PPG; Nantes away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Lille or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nantes in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lille
3
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nantes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 6, Nantes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Lille 1-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nantes?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Lille, 71% for Nantes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 54% (Nantes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Nantes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Lille's games and 71% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 54% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lille's recent matches and 79% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Nantes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Nantes 1-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.61 xG and Nantes 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Nantes attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 46% | Draw 25% | Nantes 29%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 46%, Nantes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nantes's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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