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Poisson rates Le Havre at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Le Havre encounter.

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Analysis

Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Current Form

Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Le Havre (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 0.80 PPG clear of Nantes in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nantes lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Nantes — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Le Havre — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 61% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Le Havre 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.01 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.730 / defence 1.381 | Le Havre attack 0.742 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.221. Nantes's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Nantes games / 56 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Le Havre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Le Havre 30% BTTS from recent games.

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