Nantes 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 0.80 PPG clear of Nantes in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nantes lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 61% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Le Havre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.01 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.730 / defence 1.381 | Le Havre attack 0.742 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.221. Nantes's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Nantes games / 56 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Le Havre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Le Havre 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Nantes 1.01 / Le Havre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.730 / def 1.381 | Le Havre attack 0.742 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Le Havre xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Le Havre kick off?
Nantes vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Nantes 2 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Nantes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Le Havre part of?
Nantes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 30% chance of winning, Le Havre a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nantes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.74x) against Nantes's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.52
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Le Havre xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nantes and 1.25 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 17D 28L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.07 PPG from 56 outings (16W 12D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Nantes against 1.07 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nantes's home form reads 5W 8D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.07 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 17D 28L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 12D 28L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.85 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nantes
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Nantes 2-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Le Havre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 44% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 44% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.01 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.73 / defence 1.38 against Le Havre attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 30% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 42%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.89 PPG, Le Havre 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.