Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Le Havre at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Le Havre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Le Havre, 3 for Toulouse and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Le Havre 0–0 Toulouse — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Toulouse 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.93 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.832 / defence 0.853 | Toulouse attack 0.998 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.200. Toulouse bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Le Havre's projected output down. Data: built from Le Havre's last 55 games and Toulouse's last 55.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.14 | Draw 3.20 | Toulouse 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 60% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Le Havre 0.93 / Toulouse 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.832 / def 0.853 | Toulouse attack 0.998 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Toulouse xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 32% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.83) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 55 games and Toulouse's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.20
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.95
1.02
Toulouse xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.02 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 15W 12D 28L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.04 PPG, Toulouse on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.04 PPG from their last 27 home games (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.04 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Toulouse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won Toulouse 4-0 Le Havre.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Toulouse 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Le Havre) and 48% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 33%; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Le Havre's recent matches and 41% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Le Havre's recent matches and 63% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Toulouse 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.93 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Toulouse attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 32% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Toulouse 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.04 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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