Le Havre 2-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Strasbourg meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Strasbourg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Le Havre, 1.10 for Strasbourg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Strasbourg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Le Havre 2W, Strasbourg 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Strasbourg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Strasbourg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Strasbourg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.15 xG and Strasbourg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.765 / defence 0.868 | Strasbourg attack 1.197 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.219. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Le Havre games / 54 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 34% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Strasbourg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 60% | Strasbourg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 34% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Le Havre 1.15 / Strasbourg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.765 / def 0.868 | Strasbourg attack 1.197 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Strasbourg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Le Havre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Le Havre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Strasbourg part of?
Le Havre vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 34% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Le Havre and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Strasbourg?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Strasbourg in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.77) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (1.20x) against Le Havre's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.64
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.42
1.27
Strasbourg xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.27 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Havre's recent record stands at 14W 12D 28L from 54 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 17L across 54 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 6W 7D 14L from 27 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.65 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 25W 12D 17L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.93 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Strasbourg won 0-3 on 15 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Le Havre
0
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Strasbourg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Strasbourg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Strasbourg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Le Havre) and 52% (Strasbourg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 59% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Le Havre's matches and 52% of Strasbourg's.
Do Le Havre and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Strasbourg 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.15 xG and Strasbourg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 34% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 39%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Strasbourg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.