Angers 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Angers welcome Toulouse to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.60 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Angers, 3 for Toulouse and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 39% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 32% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.10 xG and Toulouse 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.006 / defence 1.133 | Toulouse attack 1.135 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.219. Toulouse's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Angers games / 54 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 48%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Toulouse 2.08. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 50% | Toulouse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Angers 1.10 / Toulouse 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.006 / def 1.133 | Toulouse attack 1.135 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Toulouse kick off?
Angers vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Angers 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Angers vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Toulouse part of?
Angers vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 27% chance of winning, Toulouse a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Angers and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 3W.
What form are Angers and Toulouse in?
Angers (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
27%
3.76
25%
3.97
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Angers xG
Total xG
2.66
1.57
Toulouse xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Angers and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Angers and 1.57 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Angers have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 11D 26L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 15D 20L from 54 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.15 PPG, Toulouse on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (10W 4D 12L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.31 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Angers or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Toulouse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Angers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 46%, Toulouse 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Angers) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 35%; Angers have failed to score in 27% of games; Toulouse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Angers's recent matches and 42% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Angers's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Toulouse tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.10 xG and Toulouse 1.57 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.14 / defence 0.75, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 27% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 48%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 32%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.15 PPG, Toulouse 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.