Le Havre 2-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Strasbourg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Le Havre and Strasbourg meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.

Current Form

Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Strasbourg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Strasbourg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Le Havre, 1.10 for Strasbourg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Le Havre's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Strasbourg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Strasbourg edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Le Havre 0–1 Strasbourg — a Strasbourg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Strasbourg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Strasbourg 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Strasbourg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.15 xG and Strasbourg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.765 / defence 0.868 | Strasbourg attack 1.197 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.219. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Le Havre's last 54 games and Strasbourg's last 54.

Result probabilities: Le Havre 34% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.98 | Draw 3.64 | Strasbourg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Le Havre 60% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights