🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Lyon (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantes face Lyon.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 20:05 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lyon — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lyon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Lyon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Nantes's 0 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Lyon winning.

It is worth noting that Lyon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Nantes trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Lyon trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 61% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lyon 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.12 xG and Lyon 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.771 / defence 1.507 | Lyon attack 1.275 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.243. Nantes's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 2.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Nantes games / 54 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nantes 16% | Draw 18% | Lyon 65%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Lyon 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights