Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lorient to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lorient — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 3 for Lorient and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Lorient trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Lorient 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 61% | Lorient 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.24 xG and Lorient 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.901 / defence 0.990 | Lorient attack 0.844 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.253. Data: 54 Stade Brestois 29 games / 20 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Draw 28% | Lorient 31%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Lorient 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Lorient 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Draw 28% | Lorient 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.24 / Lorient 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.901 / def 0.990 | Lorient attack 0.844 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lorient xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 40% chance of winning, Lorient a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Record (7 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 3W | Draws 1 | Lorient 3W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Lorient (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.90) and Lorient's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.53
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.28
1.05
Lorient xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.05 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 21W 10D 23L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 13L across 54 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lorient by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Stade Brestois 29 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lorient's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lorient's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.76 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 10D 23L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Lorient have gone 29W 12D 13L in their last 54 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lorient away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.78 PPG; Lorient away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lorient in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
3
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Lorient have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Lorient 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stade Brestois 29) and 41% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lorient in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 44% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 41% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lorient in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lorient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lorient 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.24 xG and Lorient 1.05 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lorient landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Lorient attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 40% | Draw 28% | Lorient 31%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 61%, Lorient 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Lorient's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Stade Brestois 29 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.