Estac Troyes 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estac Troyes and Metz meet at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Metz arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Metz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 54% versus Metz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 41% | Metz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.04 xG and Metz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.705 / defence 1.122 | Metz attack 0.741 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.199. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Estac Troyes games / 22 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 32% | Metz 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Metz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Metz (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 60% | Metz 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 32% | Metz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Estac Troyes 1.04 / Metz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.705 / def 1.122 | Metz attack 0.741 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Metz xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Metz kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Metz?
Estac Troyes 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Metz part of?
Estac Troyes vs Metz is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 35% chance of winning, Metz a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Estac Troyes and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Metz 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Metz in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Metz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.70) and Metz's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.74x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.12
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
Metz xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.00 for Metz, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 5D 12L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 0.86 PPG from 22 outings (4W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Estac Troyes against 0.86 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estac Troyes's home form reads 2W 4D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.09 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Metz in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Metz have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.91 PPG; Metz away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Metz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Metz 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Metz?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 64%, Metz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Estac Troyes) and 54% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Metz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 46% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 54% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Metz tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Metz in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 23, as Estac Troyes and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.04 xG and Metz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Metz attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 32% | Metz 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 41%, Metz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.91 PPG, Metz 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.