Lille 1-5 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lille register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Paris Saint Germain in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lille, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 73% and Paris Saint Germain 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 54% | Paris Saint Germain 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.19 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.949 / defence 1.084 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.001 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.156. Data: 22 Lille games / 22 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 34% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Paris Saint Germain 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 70% | Paris Saint Germain 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 34% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Lille 1.19 / Paris Saint Germain 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.949 / def 1.084 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.001 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Paris Saint Germain xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Lille 1 - 5 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 34% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lille and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 1W.
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lille's attack at 0.95x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.00x) against Lille's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.55
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lille xG
Total xG
2.44
1.25
Paris Saint Germain xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lille and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lille and 1.25 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 8D 6L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.41 PPG from 22 outings (16W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Lille — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 5W 4D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Paris Saint Germain's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.09 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 16W 5D 1L in their last 22 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Lille's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.90 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Lille or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-7 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lille
2
Draws
8
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Lille, 70% for Paris Saint Germain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 40% (Paris Saint Germain).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lille's games and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 40% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 1-5 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.19 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 34% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 54%, Paris Saint Germain 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.