Nice 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Clermont Foot travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Nice have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nice have won 1, Clermont Foot 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 41% versus Clermont Foot 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 59% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.921 / defence 1.198 | Clermont Foot attack 0.668 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.199. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Nice games / 22 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 53% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 21%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 4.76. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 60% | Clermont Foot 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 53% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Nice 1.64 / Clermont Foot 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.921 / def 1.198 | Clermont Foot attack 0.668 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Nice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nice vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Nice 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nice vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nice vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 53% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nice and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.85
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Nice xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Nice and 0.96 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 13W 4D 5L from 22 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 11L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 games (1.95 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Clermont Foot away?
Nice's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.64 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Nice or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nice
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 54%, Clermont Foot 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Nice) and 54% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 36% of games; Clermont Foot in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nice's recent matches and 36% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Nice's matches and 54% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Nice and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Clermont Foot attack 0.67 / defence 1.47, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 53% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 21%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.