Reims 5-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Reims welcome Bordeaux to Stade Auguste-Delaune II. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Auguste-Delaune II — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Reims are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reims, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Bordeaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 50% and Bordeaux 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 36% | Bordeaux 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.64 xG and Bordeaux 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.724 / defence 1.091 | Bordeaux attack 0.954 / defence 1.868. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.199. Reims's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.868 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Reims games / 22 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 28%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Bordeaux 3.57. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Bordeaux 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Reims 1.64 / Bordeaux 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.724 / def 1.091 | Bordeaux attack 0.954 / def 1.868 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Reims (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bordeaux xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Bordeaux kick off?
Reims vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Bordeaux?
Reims 5 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Reims vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Bordeaux part of?
Reims vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 46% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Reims and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Reims and Bordeaux in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.72) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.87), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.89
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Reims xG
Total xG
2.89
1.25
Bordeaux xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Reims and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Reims and 1.25 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Reims have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 5W 9D 8L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.09 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.55 scored and 2.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 77%.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Bordeaux away?
Reims's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.20 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reims or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Bordeaux runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reims
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Reims 5-0 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 40%, Bordeaux 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Reims and 90% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 40% of games; Bordeaux in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Reims's games and 70% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Reims's matches and 90% of Bordeaux's.
Do Reims and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Bordeaux 5-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.64 xG and Bordeaux 1.25 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Bordeaux attack 0.95 / defence 1.87, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 28%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 36%, Bordeaux 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bordeaux's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.09 PPG, Bordeaux 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.