Saint Etienne 3-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Saint Etienne welcome Montpellier to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Montpellier are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Montpellier in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Montpellier winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Montpellier trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 59% versus Montpellier 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 50% | Montpellier 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.05 xG and Montpellier 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.729 / defence 1.606 | Montpellier attack 1.007 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.228. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Saint Etienne games / 22 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 23% | Montpellier 58%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Montpellier 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Montpellier 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 23% | Montpellier 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.05 / Montpellier 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.729 / def 1.606 | Montpellier attack 1.007 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Montpellier xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Saint Etienne 3 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier part of?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 19% chance of winning, Montpellier a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Montpellier (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
19%
5.30
23%
4.40
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.03
1.98
Montpellier xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
38.54
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.98 for Montpellier, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 6D 13L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Montpellier sit at 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 1W 3D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Montpellier have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Montpellier's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.68 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 games (0.68 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.60 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 5, Montpellier have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Saint Etienne at 70%, Montpellier at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Saint Etienne and 60% for Montpellier. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Montpellier?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Saint Etienne's games and 60% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Saint Etienne's matches and 60% of Montpellier's.
Do Saint Etienne and Montpellier tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Montpellier.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Montpellier 3-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.05 xG and Montpellier 1.98 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Montpellier landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.73 / defence 1.61 against Montpellier attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 23% | Montpellier 58%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 50%, Montpellier 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Montpellier arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Saint Etienne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.