Stade Brestois 29 5-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Stade Brestois 29's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 0W, Estac Troyes 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 65% versus Estac Troyes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Estac Troyes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.37 xG and Estac Troyes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.933 / defence 1.244 | Estac Troyes attack 0.714 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.164. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Stade Brestois 29 games / 23 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 28%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.37 / Estac Troyes 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.933 / def 1.244 | Estac Troyes attack 0.714 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Stade Brestois 29 5 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 44% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.93) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.71x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.58
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.40
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.03 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 7D 9L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 0.91 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.87 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Estac Troyes away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.36 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Brestois 29 won 5-1 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Estac Troyes 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 46%, Estac Troyes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stade Brestois 29) and 46% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 46% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 46% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stade Brestois 29 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Estac Troyes 5-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.37 xG and Estac Troyes 1.03 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Estac Troyes attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 28%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Estac Troyes 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.22 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.