Metz 1-2 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Marseille travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Marseille are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Metz, 0 for Marseille and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Metz trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Marseille trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 52% versus Marseille 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 52% | Marseille 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.77 xG and Marseille 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.831 / defence 1.530 | Marseille attack 0.892 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.167. Marseille's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Metz games / 23 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 18% | Draw 25% | Marseille 57%. Fair-value odds: Metz 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Marseille 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Metz 60% | Marseille 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 18% | Draw 25% | Marseille 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Metz 0.77 / Marseille 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.831 / def 1.530 | Marseille attack 0.892 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Marseille (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Marseille xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Marseille kick off?
Metz vs Marseille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Marseille?
Metz 1 - 2 Marseille.
Where is Metz vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Marseille part of?
Metz vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 18% chance of winning, Marseille a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Metz and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Marseille?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 1 | Marseille 0W.
What form are Metz and Marseille in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Marseille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.83x the league average against Marseille's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
18%
5.55
25%
3.99
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Metz xG
Total xG
2.36
1.59
Marseille xG
5.55
18%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
27.22
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Metz and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Metz and 1.59 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Marseille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz's recent record stands at 4W 8D 11L from 23 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 4L across 23 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Metz have managed 1W 4D 6L from 11 games — 0.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 7W 2D 2L across 11 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.57 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Marseille in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Marseille have gone 12W 7D 4L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.64 PPG; Marseille away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Metz or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Marseille in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Metz and Marseille runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Marseille won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
3
Draws
3
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Marseille have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Marseille 3-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 64%, Marseille 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Metz) and 18% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Marseille in 64%; Metz have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Metz's recent matches and 27% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Metz's recent games and 18% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Marseille tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Marseille in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Metz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Metz 1-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.77 xG and Marseille 1.59 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.83 / defence 1.53 against Marseille attack 0.89 / defence 0.78, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 18% | Draw 25% | Marseille 57%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 52%, Marseille 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.