Chelsea 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chelsea (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chelsea face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Burnley travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea in Premier League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chelsea — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Chelsea have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chelsea are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Chelsea's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Chelsea hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Burnley and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Chelsea 2–0 Burnley — a Chelsea win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Chelsea and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Chelsea trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Burnley trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 61% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 59% | Burnley 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 2.41 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.164 / defence 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.923 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.274. Burnley's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chelsea's projected output up. Data: built from Chelsea's last 64 games and Burnley's last 26.
Result probabilities: Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 1.60 | Draw 4.58 | Burnley 6.45. The model has a clear lean to Chelsea (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.41 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chelsea are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chelsea's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chelsea 70% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Chelsea 2.41 / Burnley 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.164 / def 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.923 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Burnley xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chelsea vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Chelsea vs Burnley kick off?
Chelsea vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Chelsea 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Chelsea vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Burnley part of?
Chelsea vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 63% chance of winning, Burnley a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chelsea and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chelsea vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chelsea's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Chelsea's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chelsea's last 64 games and Burnley's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.58
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Chelsea xG
Total xG
3.60
1.19
Burnley xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
9%
11.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
1%
72.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.19 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chelsea's recent record stands at 32W 17D 15L from 64 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 17L across 64 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chelsea on 1.77 PPG, Burnley on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chelsea have managed 18W 9D 5L from their last 32 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 14W 8D 10L across their last 32 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chelsea are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.30 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Chelsea (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chelsea
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Chelsea vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Chelsea and Burnley in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 32W 17D 15L in their last 64 games (1.77 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Burnley away?
Chelsea's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.97 PPG; Burnley away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Chelsea or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burnley in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2022, when Chelsea won Burnley 0-4 Chelsea.
Chelsea's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chelsea
3
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Chelsea vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chelsea have won 3, Burnley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Chelsea 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Burnley?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chelsea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 62%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Chelsea) and 50% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 41%; Burnley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chelsea vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chelsea and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Chelsea's recent matches and 47% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chelsea and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Chelsea's recent games and 50% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chelsea and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Chelsea's recent matches and 69% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chelsea and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 27, as Chelsea and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.41 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 59%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.77 PPG, Burnley 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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