🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Arsenal (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tottenham face Arsenal.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Tottenham host Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Tottenham — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Arsenal have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tottenham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Arsenal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Arsenal have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Tottenham.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Arsenal winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Arsenal have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Tottenham in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Arsenal in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 59% versus Arsenal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Arsenal 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.895 / defence 1.159 | Arsenal attack 1.163 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.274. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Tottenham games / 65 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Arsenal 1.96. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 80% | Arsenal 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights