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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Fulham make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sunderland (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.

Fulham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Sunderland, 1.40 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Sunderland — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Fulham — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 47% versus Fulham 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Fulham 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.56 xG and Fulham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.941 / defence 0.807 | Fulham attack 0.871 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.268. Data: 26 Sunderland games / 64 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sunderland 50% | Draw 32% | Fulham 18%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Fulham 5.56. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 50% | Fulham 60%.

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