Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Liverpool travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's home record at City Ground: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Liverpool — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Liverpool have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 3 for Liverpool and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Liverpool trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Liverpool 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Liverpool 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.766 / defence 0.949 | Liverpool attack 1.124 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.268. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Nottingham Forest games / 64 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 34% | Liverpool 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Liverpool 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Liverpool 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 34% | Liverpool 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.09 / Liverpool 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.766 / def 0.949 | Liverpool attack 1.124 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Liverpool xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 27% chance of winning, Liverpool a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
Record (7 meetings): Nottingham Forest 3W | Draws 1 | Liverpool 3W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Liverpool (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
27%
3.77
34%
2.93
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
Liverpool xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.58
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.35 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 26W 14D 24L from 64 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 37W 15D 12L across 64 games — 1.97 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 12W 9D 11L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Liverpool's away record stands at 16W 8D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 1.98 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 14D 24L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 37W 15D 12L in their last 64 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.41 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Liverpool in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Liverpool won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
4
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
From 9 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Liverpool have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Liverpool see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 38%, Liverpool 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nottingham Forest) and 66% (Liverpool).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Liverpool in 38%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 59% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 66% of Liverpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Liverpool tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Liverpool in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Nottingham Forest 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Liverpool 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against Liverpool attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 34% | Liverpool 39%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.