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Poisson rates Liverpool at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Liverpool travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nottingham Forest's home record at City Ground: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Liverpool — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Liverpool have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 3 for Liverpool and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Nottingham Forest trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Liverpool trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Liverpool 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Liverpool 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Liverpool 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.766 / defence 0.949 | Liverpool attack 1.124 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.268. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Nottingham Forest games / 64 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 34% | Liverpool 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Liverpool 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Liverpool 60%.

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