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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Burnley encounter.

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Analysis

Burnley make the trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Crystal Palace's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Selhurst Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Crystal Palace against 0.50 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, Crystal Palace are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Crystal Palace winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Crystal Palace and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Burnley — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Burnley 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 44% | Burnley 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.44 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.709 / defence 1.013 | Burnley attack 0.781 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.282. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Crystal Palace's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Crystal Palace games / 25 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 44% | Draw 33% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Burnley 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 50% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.

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