Crystal Palace 1-0 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Crystal Palace take on Wolves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Wolves travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crystal Palace — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolves have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 0.60 PPG versus Wolves's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Crystal Palace hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Wolves, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Crystal Palace winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Crystal Palace and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wolves in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 55% versus Wolves 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 45% | Wolves 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.06 xG and Wolves 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.769 / defence 1.151 | Wolves attack 0.637 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.268. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Crystal Palace games / 65 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 38% | Wolves 27%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Wolves 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 50% | Wolves 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 38% | Wolves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Crystal Palace 1.06 / Wolves 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.769 / def 1.151 | Wolves attack 0.637 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wolves xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Wolves kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Wolves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Wolves.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Wolves part of?
Crystal Palace vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 34% chance of winning, Wolves a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crystal Palace and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
Record (9 meetings): Crystal Palace 7W | Draws 1 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Wolves in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Wolves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crystal Palace's attack at 0.77x the league average against Wolves's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
38%
2.61
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
1.99
0.93
Wolves xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.93 for Wolves, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 22D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 0.81 PPG from 64 outings (13W 13D 38L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crystal Palace's home form reads 8W 13D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (6W 7D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.12 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Wolves in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Wolves have gone 13W 13D 38L in their last 64 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Wolves away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.19 PPG; Wolves away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wolves in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crystal Palace have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Crystal Palace
1
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 8, Wolves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-0 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 61%, Wolves 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crystal Palace) and 58% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 29% of games; Wolves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Wolves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crystal Palace's games and 55% of Wolves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 58% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Wolves tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wolves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Wolves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Wolves 1-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.06 xG and Wolves 0.93 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Wolves attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 38% | Wolves 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 45%, Wolves 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wolves's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crystal Palace arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.