Burnley 3-4 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brentford at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Brentford travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brentford stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brentford have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brentford are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Burnley, 3 for Brentford and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brentford in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Brentford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | Brentford 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.725 / defence 1.255 | Brentford attack 1.045 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Burnley's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Burnley games / 65 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Brentford 2.04. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 40% | Brentford 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Burnley 1.06 / Brentford 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.725 / def 1.255 | Brentford attack 1.045 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Brentford (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Brentford xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brentford kick off?
Burnley vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Burnley 3 - 4 Brentford.
Where is Burnley vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brentford part of?
Burnley vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 21% chance of winning, Brentford a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 0 | Brentford 3W.
What form are Burnley and Brentford in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Brentford (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
21%
4.66
30%
3.38
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.73
1.67
Brentford xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
24.75
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Burnley and 1.67 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 27W 21D 17L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 28W 12D 25L from 65 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.57 PPG, Brentford on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (13W 12D 7L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 12W 4D 16L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.63 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 60%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Brentford in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 21D 17L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while Brentford have gone 28W 12D 25L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brentford away?
Burnley's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.59 PPG; Brentford away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Brentford in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Brentford won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Brentford have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Burnley 3-4 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 34%, Brentford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Burnley) and 53% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Brentford in 31%; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Burnley's recent matches and 53% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Burnley's recent games and 53% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Brentford tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Brentford in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Burnley 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Burnley 3-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.67 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brentford outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Brentford attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, Brentford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.57 PPG, Brentford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.